:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Dec 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2021 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 02-Dec 04 2021

            Dec 02     Dec 03     Dec 04
00-03UT        2          3          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        3          2          3     
21-00UT        4          3          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2021

              Dec 02  Dec 03  Dec 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2021

              Dec 02        Dec 03        Dec 04
R1-R2            5%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.