:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2022

            Aug 16     Aug 17     Aug 18
00-03UT        1          2          4     
03-06UT        2          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          3          6 (G2)
09-12UT        2          3          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          4          5 (G1)
15-18UT        1          4          4     
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     4     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 17 Aug due to a
combination of CH HSS influences and CME arrival. G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storms are likely on 18 Aug due to the anticipated
subsequent CMEs.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2022

              Aug 16  Aug 17  Aug 18
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 16-18 Aug mainly due to the potential from Region
3078.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was a M5.0 on Aug 16 2022 0758 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2022

              Aug 16        Aug 17        Aug 18
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 16-18 Aug, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts due to
the flare potential of Region 3078.