:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 May 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2022

            May 25     May 26     May 27
00-03UT        1          2          3     
03-06UT        2          2          4     
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        1          4          2     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2022

              May 25  May 26  May 27
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storms exists
through 26 May mainly due to the favorable position and flare potential
of Region 3014.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2022

              May 25        May 26        May 27
R1-R2           35%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts is present
through the forecast period due to the addition of Region 3023 to the
groups present on the visible solar disk. A slight chance for R3
(Strong) or greater radio blackouts exists 25 May until Region 3014
rotates beyond the western limb.