:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Dec 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2022 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 02-Dec 04 2022

             Dec 02       Dec 03       Dec 04
00-03UT       3.67         3.00         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         2.67         2.00     
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         3.67     
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         4.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.67         4.00     
15-18UT       3.67         2.00         3.67     
18-21UT       3.67         1.67         2.67     
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2022

              Dec 02  Dec 03  Dec 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 01 2022 0721 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2022

              Dec 02        Dec 03        Dec 04
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.