:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 20-Mar 22 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 20-Mar 22 2023

             Mar 20       Mar 21       Mar 22
00-03UT       3.00         3.33         1.67     
03-06UT       1.00         3.67         1.33     
06-09UT       1.00         4.00         1.33     
09-12UT       3.00         3.67         1.33     
12-15UT       2.67         3.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         2.67         1.33     
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         3.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2023

              Mar 20  Mar 21  Mar 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 20 2023 0148 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2023

              Mar 20        Mar 21        Mar 22
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 20-22 Mar.