:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Feb 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Mar 01 2021 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2021

            Feb 27     Feb 28     Mar 01
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        2          1          3     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        1          2          3     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2021

              Feb 27  Feb 28  Mar 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2021

              Feb 27        Feb 28        Mar 01
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.